Overview Of Mitsui OSK Lines Commerce Essay

Overview Of Mitsui OSK Lines Commerce Essay Introduction to Mitsui OSK lines Mitsui OSK lines (MOL) are a Japanese transport company which has wide range of business. OSK lines were a shipping company which was formed in 1884 and Mitsui was formed in 1942. During the major consolidation in Japanese shipping markets Mitsui OSK lines was formed in 1964, following the mergers of two companies OSK lines and Mitsui. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). After the formation in 1964 they launched specialised car carrier in 1965 and then full container ships in 1968. Later on they also entered the LNG market and also launched the double hull VLCC in 1995. As a strategy to expand their container services covering North America, Asia and Europe MOL joined a global merger know as The New world alliance (TNWA) with American president lines and Hyundai Merchant Marine. (Panama Canal authority, 2009). In one of the biggest mergers in Japan Mitsui OSK lines (2nd largest in Japan) merged with Navix lines (4th largest in Japan) in 1999. After the merger with Navix lines, MOL became one o f the biggest maritime carriers in the world (Japanese Times, 1998). The groups headquarters are in Tokyo, Japan. The company has in total 533 subsidiaries and affiliated companies in 66 countries with a consolidated work force of 39,864 employees (Annual report, 2009). Its main areas of operations are shipping and shipping related activities. Source: Mitsui OSK lines, 2010. As seen from the above chart MOL has a wide range of ships such as containers, pure car carriers, Bulk carriers, Tankers, LNG carriers, and others. MOLs core business segments are its bulk ships, container ships. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). In addition to ships they are in logistics services such as distribution and inventory control, air cargo transport, construction and engineering, real estate, trading and R D. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). MOL has 861 ships as of 31st March 2009 with a carrying capacity of 59,643 thousand tons. In terms of number of ships and deadweight MOL ranks the worlds largest shipping company in the world ahead of NYK and COSCO (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). Source: Mitsui OSK lines, 2010. It has the largest Dry bulk fleet in the world with fleet size of 356 ships with a combined deadweight of 31026 million tons (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). MOL is ranked first in terms of operation of LNG ships. Even after the financial crisis, the bunker prices at sky high rates and a strong yen in FY 2008 MOL posted their second highest annual income till date. This was more due to the strong performance in first half of 2008. Their revenue for FY 2008 was 18,994,218 thousand dollars with net income of 1292752 thousand dollars. Source: Mitsui OSK lines, 2010. Source: Mitsui OSK lines, 2010. Innovations and other activities In 2001 MOL launched its corporate principles to promote and protect our environment by maintaining strict, safe operation and navigation standards (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010, p.1). As per their principles they launched the 24hour manned (SOSC) Safety Operation Supporting Centre in the Head Office which monitors all MOL vessels position all around the world. MOL is also heavily involved in research and development. In December 2009 it displayed its concept of new generation vessels. The car carrier which is environment friendly they call it a HBRID car carrier, i.e. it uses renewable energy for ships electricity supply. The current president of MOL is Akimitsu says he want to create an excellent and resilient MOL group that contributes to sustainable worldwide growth (Ashida, 2009, p.1) HYBRID CAR CARRIER Source: Mitsui OSK lines, 2010. Theory of SWOT analysis W = WEAKNESS S = STRENGTH T = THREATS O = OPPORTUNITIY Source: Author generated The central purpose of SWOT analysis is to identify strategies that align, fit or match a companys resources and capabilities to the demands of the environment in which the company operates (Hill Jones, 2001). The true sense of SWOT analysis lies in its efficient use of rendering the company with its true picture of internal and external threats to the organisation. The predominant usage of SWOT is by bifurcating it into external and internal factors. Internal factor comprises of strengths and weakness of an organisation and the people who set the organisation standards. External factors are its opportunity and threats that are from its competitors and fellow companies. (Wang, 2008). True analysis helps the company set its agenda and helps excel to sustain in the competitive market. It is the model that helps it restructure the organisation to be able to sustain the competition. SWOT matrix can be used by managers to create various kinds of growth strategies. In the matrix there are four set of combinations which can be used. (Wang, 2008). SWOT MATRIX Opportunities EXTERNAL FACTORS WO SO ST WT Threats Strengths Weakness INTERNAL FACTORS SOURCE: Wang, 2008 SO: It is a combination of using strength of an organisation to grab the opportunities. ST: Using the strength of a company and company members to fight threats. Threats can be internal or external WO: This combination helps fight weakness to open up new opportunities. WT: Weakness and threats; these strategies are defensive in nature and helps to act in the positive direction to accomplish the set targets of the organisation. SWOT Analysis Strengths: Strong revenue growth: Its core shipping business is its bulk shipping. These are primary responsible for the growth of the company. It contributed to 86% of the revenue for the group. This increase in its major divisions will fuel the companys growth and will also help it in expanding its market share (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Diversified business portfolio: MOL has a diversified fleet ranging from ship operations to logistics. The logistics division of the fleet supports its shipping division. Due to its diversified fleet it can cope up with short term market fluctuations and also it can influence them. It also helps the group to enter into a market with wider customer base. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Large fleet size: With respect to number of ships MOL has one of the largest fleet sizes. The group has the largest fleet of ships for Bulk and LNG. With this large fleet size it can service its customers better and also it improves the bargaining power in the market (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Weaknesses: Geographic concentration: MOLs main trade area is near the Japan coast and it is mainly catering to the Japanese market. For the FY 2007-2008 95% of its revenue was earned from the Japanese market. Over dependence on Japanese market makes its business risky as it is completely depend upon the economy of that country. It faces a competitive disadvantage over other companies due to its absence from the emerging markets in Asia. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Economic downturn will affect the company as it is solely dependent upon Japanese markets. Slow growth and minimum profit margins in container market will affect the companys net income, due to the presence of container market drivers such as Maersk and MSC. High debt burden: MOL suffers from substantial Debt for the year ending 31st March 2009. As MOL has such a high debt it will affect on the groups capacity to obtain funds for future working capital, acquisitions etc. which will hamper the growth of the group (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Opportunities Growing volumes of container market: Due to globalisation container market will keep on growing at high rate. Hence they can enter into new trade routes in emerging markets such as Asia and Middle East (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Growing demand for natural gas transportation: The demand of natural gas will keep on increasing over the years as industrial, commercial and residential consumption will increase. MOL is already into natural gas transportation, they can benefit themselves with the growth in demand (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Well-timed fleet expansion: New regulations in Bulk shipping are coming, which are setting an upper limit on the age of the ships. MOL has got new fleet of carriers and also it can expand its current fleet and make the most of the situation. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Threats Volatile oil prices: As MOL operates such a large fleet size fluctuation in the crude oil prices seriously affects the company. As the market is very competitive increased fuel prices burden cannot be passed on to the customer. This affects the companies operating expenses. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). Economic crisis is also a major concern due to major concentration of its trading in Japan. Competitive industry: There is a price war in between companies such as Maersk, NYK lines, MSC, Hanjin etc. Companies are coming up strategies such as low prices and faster delivery of goods. Hence the company has to make long term sustainability strategies which can help them stay in the market. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). MOL has a large fleet and in-spite of having policies, proper training and adequate precautions accidents are bound to happen. Oil spill accident can affect the companys image and can wipe out its business (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). Global strategy Global strategy is a strategy which focuses on the world market and considers it to be a single market. This strategy is mainly adopted by companies which can compete on a global basis and their products are mainly standardized and offer services on a worldwide basis (Laudon Laudon, 2007). Global strategy is adopted mainly because of globalisation and liberalisation of trade all over the world. Some of the key drivers of globalisation are: There is a significant amount of reduction of barriers for trade in-between countries. The markets are liberalised and adoption of free market strategy. Industrialisation in developing nations such as India, China. Integration of world markets and cross border transactions have resulted in easy flow of capital. Technological advances are facilitating cross border trade and investments. The key participants in the global business are multinational enterprise (MNEs). MNE is a large company which have offices and subsidiary companies all over the world. Normally MNEs have inter-dependent members located all over the world, and all members work for a single system. MNEs normally carry out RD, manufacturing, procurement and marketing activities in whichever part of the world is economical for their business. Development of Information technology is giving the firms more flexibility to plan their global strategy. (Laudon and Laudon, 2007). Implementation of global strategy in a MNE is not easy at it seems. There is diversity in behaviour of people within countries. Companies when implementing their global strategies have to modify their strategies depending upon the regional markets. (Baird, 2003) Companies should also take into consideration regional differences, different life styles of people, cultures, and values. (Baird, 2003) In under-developed countries there may be other factors such as relation with government officials, language barriers lack of well trained people (Quickmba, 2007). Shipping by its nature is a globalised industry. Most of the large shipping companies operate on a global scale, and the above theory of global strategy fits perfectly for shipping lines. In terms of shipping global strategy means development of business through growth, acquisitions, alliances, creation of new capacity or a mix of all these things (Baird, 2003). The benefits to ship owners from a global strategy should be low cost and high efficiency. To gain the benefits of this strategy the key is to have a central decision making process which can handle such complex organisations (Baird, 2003). To gain competitive and comparative advantage over its rivals buying large vessels in the fleet such as containers or cape size bulk carriers is important. Mergers and alliance with companies is also a good option to increase the size of fleet and to share the risk (Baird, 2003). In container customer satisfaction is an important part of the business. (Baird, 2003) Hence companies tend to add value to their value chain by use of technology such as giving door-to-door service or by giving them faster service. MOL global strategy MOL is a shipping and transport company trading its ships all over the world. MOL has different types of ships and has offices and subsidiaries all over the world. MOL can be termed as a multinational enterprise. MOL launched its Mid-term management plan in 2007 known as MOL ADVANCE Action and Direction at the vanguard of creating excellence (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010).Their main theme is growth with enhance quality- Becoming the biggest and the best (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010,p.1). There are five overall strategies in the plan. One of the strategies in the plan is global strategy Their global strategy is to accelerate globalisation and enhance sales capabilities in emerging markets Develop business on a global scale to meet diversification of trade. To expand the business in emerging markets such as India, Middle east, Russia and Vietnam. To ensure that the fleet expansion is exceeding the growth of sea-borne trade. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2007, p.2). MOL in line with their global strategy has overcome their weakness by entering emerging markets in Asia and also has used their opportunities by investing in many projects such as the LNG market. Below are the detailed points mentioned how MOL has used their strengths, have tried to overcome their weakness, taken their opportunities and minimised threats. MOL expanded their fleet of ships from 2007 to 2009 by adding 196 ships, out of which 22 were container and 172 were bulkships. MOL is targeting the China markets which are importing iron ore from Brazil, Australia and India. Hence they are increasing their cape size bulk carrier fleet. With cape size ships such as Brasil Maru which are largest in the world, they get a competitive advantage in the cape size market. MOL will be building 53 iron ore carriers in future out of which 14 ships will be above 200 000 mt. (Nakanishi, 2008) MOL is also targeting the growth in the domestic coast trade in China and India which is expected to grow by 15% volume. (Open sea 2007) About 50% of small handy max and 20% of handy max fleet all over the world are 20 years and over. With strict regulations in force for old ships, joining of new ships in their fleet will add value to their fleet (Open sea 2007).This well timed expansion of new fleet will help the company to expand more in the bulk carrier market in the developing countries. Source: (Mitsui OSK lines, 2009). MOL will also launch their new class bulk carrier called Handy-Cape type which will be as per the specifications of the new widened Panama Canal. This will give them the versatility to serve ports all over the world (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). In the container market they are expecting a steady rise in future, in-spite of the worse current market conditions. As a long term strategy they are ordering new container vessels as trade is going to increase because of globalisation and increase in population (Mitsui OSK lines, 2007). In order to increase its bulk fleet they are planning to take over few of the bulk shipping lines which went into bankruptcy because of recession. MOL recons that in-spite of having a high debt ratio funding will not be a problem due to its past record. MOL was one of the few companies which avoided the recession and posted profits in the FY ending 31st March 2009 (Seatrade Asia, 2009). To target the growing container market in India, MOL has just opened 6 new offices in India which will serve the container and car carrier business in India. These offices can respond faster to the needs of the customer and also provide them high service quality (Open Sea, 2007 Mitsui OSK lines, 2007). Global demand for LNG is going to increase many folds in the coming years. LNG will be used as alternative source of fuel as it emits less carbon dioxide than heavy oils. On basis of this future market MOL has grabbed the opportunity and placed order for 6 LNG carriers with an investment of 150 billion yen. (iStockAnalyst, 2010). MOL has launched its new LNG carriers which have a re-gasification system fitted on board. This system will give an advantage over conventional LNG ships as these ships can discharge cargo at off shore terminals. Hence when these ships will join the MOL fleet they will give a competitive advantage over other companies is terms of safety. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010) MOL car carrier division is suffered losses because of the global recession. Hence in order to sustain in the market, MOL initiated downsizing plan, in which they scrapped 21 ships, sold 4 ships and sent 11 ships in cold layup. While they are scrapping ships they have launched a concept car carrier Hybrid carrier which uses renewable energy. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010). As a strategy to boost up the market for car carriers MOL are going to transport machinery by dismantling them, and loading onto car carriers using Mafi-load trailers. Hence they are targeting heavy lift market by using car carriers and becoming Niche player. (Mitsui OSK lines, 2010) MOL will restructure its ship management companies so that they can meet the need of expanding fleet and global network. Six ship management companies will be restructured and they will be given individual responsibility as per the type of ship. The headquarters will stay in Tokyo. (MOL Inc, 2010). Source: (MOL Inc, 2010). Conclusion MOL launched its ADVANCE mid-term management strategy which covers the entire operations of MOL. Its global strategy for the next 5 years was to overcome its weakness and to make use of the new opportunities in the emerging markets. MOL has managed to sustain and make profits in the FY 2008 in-spite of economic downturn. This is mainly because of its diversified fleet and its core business which are its bulkships. It has success fully used its strengths to sustain in recession time. Its bulkships revenue has compensated for the loss making container and the car carrier divisions. To keep a strong hold on its bulkships, MOL is continuously striving hard by buying large new ships and phasing out the old ones. MOLs core business is secured and profit making, hence they can venture into other markets and overcome its weakness. MOL main weakness is its over reliance on the Japanese markets. It has overcome the weakness by marking its presence in the emerging markets in India and China. MOL is also increasing its LNG fleet to cope up with the rapid expanding LNG market and now it is the market leader in LNG transportation. MOL is also in the process of restructuring its ship-management offices, so as to keep up with the demands of growing company. With innovative designs for its car carriers and targeting heavy machinery market MOL is trying to gain a competitive advantage.

Challenges That Women Entrepreneurs Face Commerce Essay

Challenges That Women Entrepreneurs Face Commerce Essay This paper examines the challenges that women entrepreneurs face in the tourism sector in Zimbabwe. The research targeted female entrepreneurs selling curios in Masvingo and Victoria Falls which are the prime tourist destinations in Zimbabwe. Women entrepreneurship has been under spotlight in Zimbabwe because it is a source of economic growth. Despite the potential that lies in women entrepreneurs they face additional or at least different social, cultural, educational and technological challenges than men in establishing and developing their own enterprises, and accessing economic resources. From the interviews conducted women entrepreneurs in the tourism sector have difficulties in securing funding, inadequate business related education as well as social, cultural and religious impediments. This paper engenders to understand the gender biases embedded in society which constrain womens mobility, interactions, active economic participation and access to business development services. Lastly, appropriate interventions are recommended within the discourse of entrepreneurship. Key words: Entrepreneurship, Tourism, Gender, Enterprise development, Women Entrepreneurship Introduction Entrepreneurship is a key driver of capacity building and national development in any country. As such, this paper focuses on challenges faced by women in the tourism sector. On 21 May 2012 the researchers attended a forum on Womens Engagement in Africas Tourism Industry in Victoria Falls held during the African Travel Association conference. The presenters included the former Deputy Secretary General of United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) who alluded to the fact that tourism constitutes 30% of the worlds economy and offers 78% of workforce in the world. He further reiterated that research has explicitly shown the gender inequalities that exist in the tourism sector as mostly women and children as compared to the male counterparts are exploited. He further mentioned that in 2008, the UNWTO came up with a policy for gender equality which is envisaged under the United Nations Platform. In 2010, the Global report on Women in Tourism by World Tourism Organization and United Nations women encouraged women to participate in leadership roles in the tourism industry. The report held that although women constitute a high percentage of the workforce in the tourism industry, most of them occupy lower levels where they are subsequently lowly paid. Because of this report, UNWTO suggested that vocational training be offered to empower women in the industry. Tanzania and Gambia were the first two countries chosen to start the vocational training for women entrepreneurs in the tourism industry. Other countries to benefit from the training are from Latin America and Africa. Another presenter a Managing Director of Affluent Hospitality Group in America said that women make up 80% of Travel Agency in America and 80% of travel decisions are made by women in North America. This justifies the fact that women have an active role to play in the tourism industry. In addition the Marketing Director of Amalinda Collection in Zimbabwe gave a testimony of her experience in the Tourism industry. She admitted that as a mother she has a lot of family responsibilities that apart from being a working woman such that she faces the dilemma of choosing between family and business. At one time when her son fell sick at 4 months old she had to quit the job in favour of the family. Family roles represent one of the challenges that women entrepreneurs face in comparison with their male counterparts. The Governor and Resident Minister of Matabeleland North Province of Zimbabwe reported that, 60% of arts and crafts in Zimbabwe are produced by women from Binga who largely produce reed mats and baskets while the Gwaai women produce pottery artifacts. The interesting revelations made at the conference prompted the researchers to consider conducting a research on the challenges that women entrepreneurs face in the tourism industry in Zimbabwe. In current years women-owned businesses have become increasingly popular but entrepreneurship remains a deeply gendered institution (Anderson, 2008). Bushell (2012) considered entrepreneurship as expedition out of paucity and gravitation towards equity but this has not been the case because women remain marginalized globally. Given the constraints facing African women entrepreneurs their full economic potential is not actualized and they do not feature on the mainstream of the economic agenda (Ozigbo and Ezeaku, 2009). There is therefore need for countries to address gender disparities between men and women to achieve significant milestones in economic growth. In addition to those problems faced by all small-scale entrepreneurs, women face additional or at least different social, cultural, educational and technological challenges than men in establishing and developing their own enterprises, and accessing economic resources (Mayoux, 2001). It is important that such challenges be addr essed so as to enable women to prosper in their businesses. Chitsike (2000) and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (2003) mentioned that womens businesses in Zimbabwe tend to be small and are discriminated by the legal system which backs male ideologies. Literature Review In many countries entrepreneurship has been considered a means of generating meaningful and sustainable employment opportunities, particularly for those at the margins of the economy women, the poor and people with disabilities (ILO, 1998; Rajani and Sarada, 2008). However, very little literature exists on the role of women entrepreneurs in a global economy especially in Africa (Morgan and Ojo, 2008) and this is one of the reasons why women continue to be marginalized in entrepreneurship development. In addition, in cases where the role of women entrepreneurship is articulated there still remains a gap in gender analysis (Morgan and Ojo, 2008). Research factors affecting performance of women entrepreneurs of their businesses are limited in scope, as any existing research most often focuses on individual characteristics and motives as performance predictors (Teoh and Chong, 2007) at the expense of gender disparities. Despite the economic importance of female entrepreneurs their numbe rs are lower than those for men (Verheul, Van Stel and Thurik, 2006; Carter, 2000; Minniti et al., 2005) and therefore it is of importance to address the barriers to female entrepreneurship. This paper deviates from the former approach by focusing on challenges that women face in entrepreneurial development. Furthermore, the research applies an entrepreneurial development model adapted from Richardson and Howarth (2002a) to analyse the challenges faced by women entrepreneurs in the tourism sector in Zimbabwe as shown in figure 1 below. The model is based on the cross sectional biological structure of a peach fruit. At centre of the model is the seed which represents the entrepreneurial opportunity identified. The inner part adjacent to the seed represents the mesopreneurial (fruit mesorcarp) factors based on the MAIR model by (Gibb and Ritchie, 1982) which include motivation or commitment, skills, abilities and experiences, idea in relation to the market as well as the resources. Wi lliams (1997) commented that commitment and dedication of the entrepreneur is critical if they are to prosper whilst Zimmer and Scarborough (1996) attribute failure of small businesses to managerial incompetence and lack of experience among other factors and therefore women entrepreneurs need relevant skills and experience to fully exploit entrepreneurial opportunities. The mesopreneurial factors represent the basic ingredients of business success. The final structural component is the exopreneurial (fruit exocarp) factors which represent the macro environment in which the enterprises operate and it entails the following aspects: The enabling environment which focuses on policy issues, institutions and initiatives which impact on enterprise development in particular the tourism industry in Zimbabwe The socio-cultural and economic context which the social, cultural and religious factors that affect enterprise development. Enterprise Support Sector made up of initiatives and organizations developed to propel enterprise development and how these impact on enterprise development. The Economic/Market Environment which deals with opportunities and threats in the environment. Women entrepreneurs hardly have specialized support institutions to cater for their specific needs (United Nations International Development Organization, 2003). In most cases entrepreneurial and technical training, advisory and information programmes often have to be carried out within a non-conventional set-up (United Nations International Development Organization, 2003). Women entrepreneurs need to have a more supportive environment that is more favourable (Stevenson and St-Onge, 2005) if they are to gain similar recognition that of men. Training programmes developed must take into account their society, culture, community and empowerment (Agbà ©nyiga and Ahmedani, 2008). If significant milestones are to be achieved in female entrepreneurship support systems need to take into account the needs, challenges and unique situation of women to promote women entrepreneurship and avoid failure and lower levels of female entrepreneurship (Drine and Grach, 2010). It is vital to note that c ountries that have developed policies and legislation tailored for women entrepreneurship have witnessed tremendous growth and increase in the numbers of women in business. Figure 1 Peach Fruit Concept of entrepreneurship: Adapted from Richardson and Howarth (2002a) Enteprise support sector: Government, NGOs, Private Sector, Membership Organizations, donors Endopreneurial factor Seed Entrepreneurial Opportunity The Economic/Market Environment: Opportunities and Threats Enabling Environment for Enterprise: regulations, policies, institutions, institutions and processes Mesopreneurial Factors Exopreneurial factors Resources Socio/cultural context: Attitudes, aspirations, confidence and permission idea with market Skills, abilities and experience Motivation and determination Female Entrepreneurship Women Entrepreneurs refer to women or a group of women who initiate organize and operate a business enterprise (Jahanshahi, Pitamber and Nawaser, 2010). McClelland et al. (2005) define a woman-owned business as one which is at least 51% owned by one or more women or in the case of any publicly-owned business, at least 51% of the stock of which is owned by one or more women. In 2010 187 million women were involved in entrepreneurship ranging from 1.5-45.4% of the adult female population in 59 economies (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor [GEM], 2010). It should also be noted that Ghana has 55% of women being involved in entrepreneurship and it is the only economy where there are more women than men entrepreneurs (GEM, 2010). One of the United Nations Millennium Development goals is to promote gender equity and empower women as agents of poverty eradication, hunger, disease and to stimulate sustainable development (United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2004). Therefore promo tion of women entrepreneurship is vital for the achievement of broader objectives including poverty reduction and economic development. A positive indicator to women entrepreneurship is that African leaders have pledged to take joint responsibility for promoting the role of women in social and economic development by reinforcing their capacity in education and training, facilitating access to credit and assuring their participation in the political and economic life (NEPAD, 2001). The increased role of women in economic development has forced many governments to take an active role in developing policies on women development and gender related issues. Mueller and Dato-on (2010) stipulated that women play a significant role in entrepreneurship but their role remains suppressed in comparison to that of their male counterparts across the globe because of family roles, traditions , cultural and structural constraints which diminish their abilities to lead business (Bushell, 2012). Women bear the responsibility for childcare and homecare and as a result this leads to work-family conflicts (Das, 2001 and Jahanshashi, Pitamber and Nawaser, 2010; Winn, 2005). Chitsike (2000) also stated that men view womens role as that of being at home and not engaging in any business activities that are reserved for men. One of the challenges that women face is unequal access to productive resources and services, including finance and skill upgrading opportunities (United Nations International Development Organization [UNIDO], 2003; Tumbunan, 2009; Sorokhaibam and Laishram, 2003). In many African countries, women inequality lies in economic rights and access to resources as men persist thus preventing women from taking full advantage of the economic opportunities (Ozigbo and Ezeaku, 2009). Ulusay Degroot (2001) mentions that womens participation as owners of small medium sized business has been constrained due to poor access to market information, technology and finance, poor linkages with support service and unfavourable policy and support mechanisms ( Ulusay De Groot, 2001). In Zimbabwe domestic chores and agricultural activities do not allow women time to travel to support institutions such as finance houses for advice and information on credit (Ulusay De Groot, 2001). In many African countries, w omen spend most of their income on the household and fear investing their funds in business ventures for fear of business failure (Ozigbo and Ezeaku, 2009), particularly on food and education for their children. Many of them are afraid to invest their limited funds into a business for fear of failure. Many women entrepreneurs are seldom taken seriously in spheres of credibility and capability, competing and succeeding in a male dominated environment (Ozigbo and Ezeaku, 2009) and this is one of the factors that explain their relatively obscure role in economic development. Despite the fact that many women entrepreneurship is a source of job creation, economic growth and social development many women owned businesses remain stunted by lack of appropriate managerial skills, access to business resources, networking opportunities and access to new markets (Ozigbo and Ezeaku, 2009). The current institutional environment purposes to achieve gender equity but the traditional powers are tilted towards the patriarchal system and therefore maintains the status quo of gender inequity (Goheer, 2003). In Zimbabwe women have largely been marginalized from mainstream economic activities because of the predominant partriarchal system which confines women to domestic roles. 53% of all economic activities in Zimbabwe are performed by women but, this figure remains invisible because it is not accounted for in national statistics and most of the activities are characterized by poor working conditions. It is also worth mentioning at this stage that religion, culture and the socialization process are some of the major factors perpetuating gender inequity in Zimbabwe. This is evidenced by the fact that under the current customary law, women cannot own/inherit land (Chitsike, 2000) and land is one of the resources that are important for entrepreneurial development. Research Methodology Baines and Wheelock (2000) mention that many women have ventured into entrepreneurship but little research has been done on gender and female entrepreneurship. The reasons behind increase of entrepreneurial variances arising out of gender remains unresolved is because women feel that by exposing these issues they deepen their entrepreneurial differences (Calas et.al. 2007 as cited in Peris-Ortiz, Rueda-Armengot and Benito Osorio, 2011). Studying women entrepreneurship is critical because it is an important source of economic prosperity and presently research efforts, policies and programs tend to be skewed towards men and neglect the needs of women entrepreneurs and potential women entrepreneurs (OECD, 2004). In the African context there are very few studies that have focused on female entrepreneurship particularly in the tourism sector and therefore this research seeks to close this gap. In addition, Gelb (2001) states that this is due to lack of indigenous research, inadequate info rmation and methodological constraints (Ozigbo and Ezeaku, 2009). Despite the increasing role, women entrepreneurship theory development and empirical evidence only offer a very blurry picture of women entrepreneurs (Tan, 2008). Subsequently, improved understanding of women entrepreneurs challenges is essential in order to assess their needs, and provide solutions to teething problems they encounter. Although there have been some studies of small businesses in Zimbabwe, none has provided rich qualitative data of female entrepreneurs (Mboko and Smith-Hunter, 2008) and this study endeavors to contribute towards addressing this deficiency. This study is based on the small and medium business entrepreneurs in Zimbabwes Arts and Crafts industry in Masvingo and Victoria Falls. 10 women in Masvingo from Dzimbahwe Crafts and Art Center and 15 from various Crafts Centers in Victoria Falls who were trading at Elephant Hills Hotel during the 37th ATA Conference between from 18-22 May 2012 were interviewed for this research. These towns are top tourism destinations in Zimbabwe and are home to reputable attractions which are The Great Zimbabwe and the Victoria Falls respectively. Interviews were conducted at Dzimbahwe Craft Center situated along the highway to Masvingo Town. For the effectiveness of the conversations, we had to talk to the women while viewing the different artefacts they make. The conversations included negotiations over the products prices that made the interviewers buy some of the items to encourage the women to talk freely. The interview started with more general introductions, some business questions that included who makes the products, how (i.e. whether there is use of machines or just ordinary hands), where, when and why the people do this business. The interviews also covered issues to do with any support the women received in terms of finance, human and material resources, marketing and other business operational areas. In the process, we had to go to the extent of observing the women doing the work like crocheting and weaving the mats, bed and table covers, polishing and decorating the wooden plates, basins and bowls while some were even carving the different items according to their area of specialization. This one day session took us about one and a half hours and we spent $30 to buy some items from the different women who added up to a total of 10 entrepreneurs. In Victoria Falls, we took the advantage of the 37th African Travel Association conference (ATA) that we attended from the 18th to the 22nd of May 2012 at Elephant Hills Hotel. Some selected male and female arts and crafts entrepreneurs from various selling centres of Victoria Falls were given the opportunity by the Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) to come and sell their wares free of charge at the venue during the conference days. To promote the entrepreneurs, the ZTA had in their conference program a session for Meeting the African Culture when both mid-morning and afternoon teas were being served at the grounds where the entrepreneurs were selling their products. This was a good opportunity for the conference delegates to meet and discuss with the sellers while at the same time viewing and buying the handicrafts. As researchers, we took advantage of this to carry out our study for 3 consecutive days. On the first day we toured the various stands just to view the items on display and we asked some few general questions like what we did in Masvingo. Some of the questions were about how they come to be part of the ATA conference and the benefits they were expecting from the conference. On the second day we got into in-depth interviews to get details of their operations, marketing, any support and assistance from any institutions towards the success of their businesses. To probe for more information we were appreciating their achievements and sympathizing with their challenges as we were discussing with them during the tea breaks. For the other two days we had to share a table with some women during lunch time so that we could talk more. At times we had to sit together in the conference venue, commenting on what the presenters were saying about tourism entrepreneurship. One good example was a debate on the presentation done by a representative from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Youth, Dev elopment, Indigenization and Empowerment. On the final and third day, we selected some of the artefacts to buy that included the bowls, the big five, basins, Zimbabwe bird (Shiri Hungwe) for Blessing, one of the researchers totem and other items. We spent $50 for the items and we left the women in a very happy mood. As a way of appreciating our concern for them some women gave us some of the items at very low prices and in return we influenced some of our colleagues to buy from them. The total of the interviewees was 25 women. Analysis and Discussion The demographic Profile of Interviewed Women Entrepreneurs Table 1 Geographical Location of the Women Entrepreneurs RESEARCH AREA LOCATION Urban LOCATION Rural Masvingo 3 7 Victoria Falls 9 6 According to.1 out of the 10 women who were interviewed in Masvingo, 7 were residing in the rural areas and only 3 were from the urban area. From the 15 interviewees in Victoria Falls, 9 were urban residents and only 6 were from the rural area. This data reflects that the handicraft business is done in both rural and urban settings provided there is favourable environment. In Masvingo the majority of entrepreneurs come from their rural homes that surround Nemanwa Arts and Craft center because operating from home reduces any rental costs that can be incurred. The few who stay in the urban area have their husbands working in the town and this business supplements their spouses income. In Victoria Falls the majority of women who are urban dwellers reported that they own houses in the town from the cooperative that was formulated by the Arts and Crafts business operators sometime in 1990. The remaining percentage constitutes those women who own homes in the peri-urban area of the town and are permanent residents of the area. Table 2 Age of Women Entrepreneurs AGE GROUP NUMBER Below 25 years 2 26-30 years 4 30-45 years 15 46-50 4 Table 2 shows the relationship between a womans age and entrepreneurship. The likelihood of a woman venturing into business positively increases with the 30 to 45 years age range have the greatest number of women entrepreneurs. Very few women below the age of 25 years want to get into this business probably because they are unable to do the job or have better things to do. Motivations Women who are in art and craft business in Victoria Falls and Masvingo said that they are into this business because they grew up doing the weaving, knitting and pottery activities and to them they see it as a way of their living. In the yester years when tourism was still vibrant in Zimbabwe they could earn more than other people in some professions but as from 2004 to date the business has slowed down due to the economic crisis. These women admitted that they cannot go out of this business because they have no alternative means of survival since their environments are basically in the dry regions of the country. Therefore what is evident in what the women are saying is the fact that tourism fits very well in their livelihood strategies as a source of income. From the findings it emerged that the women are motivated into employment by push factors such as unemployment, inadequate family income and the need to accommodate work and home roles as in the Zimbabwean scenario the womans p lace is the home. The same sentiments were echoed by Vijaya and Kamalanabhan (2009) and Drine and Grach (2010) who reiterated that women are motivated by the desire to provide security for the family and flexibility that entrepreneurship offer between home and family roles. Access to Financial Resources The women entrepreneurs in the arts and crafts industry revealed that their major challenge is their inaccessibility to both investment and operational capital since they have no personal assets to use as collateral which is a prerequisite at the financial institutions. If they happen to get the starting capital they may even face more challenges of getting adequate operational capital to meet their daily supplies of raw materials such as reeds, steel wires, finishing oils, threads, wood, polishes and others to use for their business. At times they may need transport to take their products to and from their homes for security reasons. If these people are operating from the designated sites the local councils would need the rentals every month for the upkeep of the places. The problem of lack of capital usually arises from the fact that the enterprises are the major contributors to the survival of the family, and this puts a brake on efforts for improvement of womens enterprises in Zi mbabwe (Ulusay Degroot, 2001). On the accessibility to capital, one woman at the ATA conference for Young Professionals in Victoria Falls narrated her ordeal of trying to get financial assistance from the Ministry of Indigenization and Youth Development that promotes indigenous entrepreneurs in the country. Grace said, When I went to the offices I was told to bring a project proposal. I prepared that at my own expense. After that they gave me a pile of forms to fill in whose other requirements i could not understand. As if that was not enough, I was told to wait for a response that never came to my attention and these people lie that they are supporting us financially. Another woman, Nyaradzo narrated that, The Ministry of Indigenization and Youth Development, asked for a list of all entrepreneurs who needed financial assistance and the specific amounts requested and were handed to the ministry but nothing materialized. The ministry later on asked the women entrepreneurs to pay $20 per person for a weeks training in financial management. After paying the money nothing has been done since November 2011. She said Vanhu ava matsotsi anodakubira varombo, havana basa nesu, (These people are conmen, who steal from the poor and they do not care about us). This is a major challenge for the women who are vulnerable to all sorts of financial risks in business. Most women also revealed that most financial institutions were not keen to finance their business initiatives. This negative attitude towards financing of women entrepreneurs is explained by the traditional patriarchal system division which spells out the differences of male-female roles in society as supported by Ozigbo and Ezeaku (2009). Protection of intellectual property rights A number of women entrepreneurs fall prey to political promises and business intermediaries. One woman who failed to get funding from the Ministry of Indigenization and Youth Development later discovered that her project was being implemented by one of the government officials in Victoria Falls. She had no voice over it. Because of this, many women in the sector feel betrayed and humiliated because of such practices. This rhymes the Shona proverbs that murombo haarovi chine nguwo (This literally means the poor will never challenge the rich). It is important for women entrepreneurs to be well versed with their intellectual property rights so that they can challenge those who prey on their ideas in judiciary. Production and space-related challenges The study has revealed that a number of Zimbabwean women who are arts and crafts entrepreneurs have no fixed place for their business operations as they are dotted from their homes, forest and some few designated arts and craft centres. The designated centres have no permanent structures put in place but there are some temporary shades which are brought by the individuals from their homes. These offer no security at all as they are just open spaces for business and in addition one is exposed to the harsh forces of the natural environment. Those who operate from the forests (source of raw materials) cite transportation problems as one of the challenges. For example, if a wood carver finds a good tree in the forest which is too big to carry home or at the designated area she has to work on it from there and then carry the finished products. These pose a lot of risks to the females since there are a lot of dangers associated with forestry environments. Storage space for the finished products is another problem for most women entrepreneurs. Most leave the products covered by some cloths or tents during the night in the presence of either a guard or unattended at owners risk. Lack of storage space puts the products at risk of theft. The most special wares are taken back home daily which is a tiresome task for the females since most of them walk a distance of about 5 kilometres every day from their homes to the designated centres. Family roles At home there is usually a challenge of divided concentration between home chores and work and at home the working space is limited and not conducive for business operations. One woman (Maria) even expressed that, handingazosiyi mumba mune tsvina nekuda kwebasa (I cannot leave my house dirty because of work). Already this indicates how busy women entrepreneurs are with household and business responsibilities at any given time of their lives and this is a hindrance to effective business operations. In support, Ulusay De Groot (2001) posits that household roles deprive women of time to travel to enterprise support institutions or to attend training sessions to acquire skills in various fields. As long as womens responsibilities remain divided between work and domestic roles their contributions to economic development will remain obscure. Marketing operations There is a general belief that Zimbabwe arts and crafts are unique worldwide and they are found in many countries these days in China besides the Americas which used to be the countrys chief tourism source market. These products have made Zimbabwe boast of its rich and unique culture The majority of women sell their products to the foreign tourists. Financial constraints make it difficult for the women to access regional and international markets despite the high demand for the Zimbabwe art and craft in these markets. It was reported that in the past years when tourism was at peak (i.e. between 1990 and 1999) business was lucrative and there was no worry of exporting the products as buyers could come to the country and buy the products. During the period business was very lucrative. Masundire (2011) identified the need to assist arts and crafts producers to access foreign markets as 90% of their wares are in demand in Europe, America, Australia and South Africa. As a result of inaccessibility to foreign markets, there is now the emergence of market intermediaries popularly known as the cross boarder traders who buy and sell the products from arts and crafts producers in foreign markets. The major problem these intermediaries pose is that they bid to buy the wares at a very low price at the expense o

Black Death Essay -- History, Plague

The most immediate effect of the plague was that it led to higher wages for the poor. Prior to the Black Death, Europe was in a state of overpopulation, and famines were a frequent occurrence (Herlihy 39). After the arrival of the first outbreak of plague, however, Europe's population dropped somewhere between twenty-five and forty-five percent (Gottfried 77). Not only that, but, repeated occurrences of plague kept Europe's population lowered, and it did not regain its pre-plague levels until the mid-sixteenth century (Gottfried 134). That overwhelming loss of so many lives turned the situation around, and suddenly Europe was facing a labor shortage. That gave laborers an advantage over their employers. With the lack of workers able to fill positions, people were able to negotiate their employment, demanding more money. If their demands were not met, they were often able to find better opportunities elsewhere (Ziegler 233). This led Matteo Villani to complain in 1363 that, à ¢â‚¬Å"Serving girls and unskilled women with no experience in service and stable boys want at least 12 florins per year, and the most arrogant among them 18 or 24 florins per year, and also nurses and minor artisans working with their hands want three times or nearly the usual pay †¦ † (Herlihy 48-49). That shows, clearly, what was happening at the time. Not only did workers want more money, they expected it. What is more important, however, is that they actually received more pay. In fact, wages doubled overall in the period after the plague. Evidence has shown that during the period between the 1340's and 1390's, skilled construction worker's pay rose from 3d to 5d per day in Southern England, and those who were unskilled saw an increase from 1 ½d to 3d... ...cent (Gottfried 97). That led to a new trend in Europe, one where many landlords, unable to obtain a profit from their lands, leased their lands to the serfs for a cash rent, and many became absentee landlords (Gottfried 138). For instance, on one manor in the baliwick of Clare, most of the lands were being leased out by 1380 (Ziegler 239). In another example, in Witchurch England in 1383 the landlord, Richard Talbot, switched to leasing the lands after attempts to directly farm in failed (Platt 50). And those are just a couple of the many examples of that occurring. What that meant for the serfs who received leases was that they were no longer bound by the chains of serfdom. They could farm the lands as they saw fit, keep what they needed for their families, and sell what they didn't. In return for this they only needed to pay a cash rent to the landlord.

Measurement, Irony and the Grotesque in Gullivers Travels :: Gullivers Travels Essays

Measurement, Irony and the Grotesque in Gulliver's Travels  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Postmodernity is obsessed with the Eighteenth Century. As an example of how our nostalgia for that period manifests itself, Hans Kellner has pointed out that a genre of novels and films set in Eighteenth century has exploded in popularity: Lempriere's Dictionary, Perfume, "The Madness of King George III." We could also point to the ongoing revision of scholarship on the period, of which GEMCS itself is an example. In considering what generates this contemporary fascination I have given some thought to the aesthetic and political issues surrounding the beginnings, and perhaps also the end, of the bourgeois social sphere. A conviction, argued most aggressively by Jean Baudrillard, is beginning to take hold, in and out of the academy, that this sphere, after an almost totalizing expansion, is now in decline. The panic over the loss of the social, whether supportable or not, offers a possible explanation for the contemporary nostalgia for the period in which Swift wrote Gulliver's Travels. In this age of dissolution, what do we see when we look back at the age of our creation? One thing we observe is the development of a peculiar kind of irony which we can't help but distinguish from our experience of this trope in the age of its dominance. The satirical effect of the irony in Gulliver's Travels read by the Postmodern will be precisely what it was not at the time of its production. The historical distance between Eighteenth Century and Contemporary readers can be understood by way of Hayden White's use of the master tropes in "Foucault Decoded." White assigns one of the master tropes to each of the four archeological periods described by Foucault in The Order of Things. In White's system, Foucault's Renaissance was metaphorical, locating truth in similarity. Swift wrote in what Foucault considered the Classical Period, which, for White, had metonymy as its overriding mode of reason, because a new transparency of representation made it possible to organize knowledge by a standard and represent it symbolically on a table. The Modern period was characterized by synecdoche, in that the subject of knowledge, Man, was now included in the study of the world, in a part-whole relationship. Finally, the Contemporary or Postmodern mode is ironic, characterized by a questioning of the foundations of knowledge and a Dionysian disappearance of the subject of that knowledge.

The Amazing Edgar Allan Poe :: Biography Biographies Essays

The Amazing Edgar Allan Poe Edgar Allen Poe suffered from depression, which made his writings tragically beautiful, and if you lived his life, you probably would have been depressed too. He was born in 1809 to a couple of actors. He was two when his father abandoned him. His mother, unable to take care of him, left him with John and Frances Allen. His mother died soon after that. The Allens gave him a good upbringing, but never legally adopted him, leaving him as something of an outcast. Much of Poe’s life was spent struggling. He excelled in school, but was ridiculed by his peers because he was the child of actors. He gambled often and lost a lot, often remaining in debt to others. When the Allens came upon some money, Poe was sent to college. When he left he was intent on marrying Sarah Elmira Royster. However; when his debts brought him back home, she had been engaged to another man. He moved away from the Allenses, and joined the Army. It was during his enrollment his first book was published. When Frances Allen died Poe reconciled with John, and agreed to go to West Point Academy. He did not like the academy and soon dropped out. Estranged from John, Poe began his life of hardships. He was constantly in and out of jobs. He eventually settled in with his Aunt Maria Clemm, and married his cousin Virginia Clemm, who was only thirteen years old at the time (he was twenty six). Only six years later Virginia became ill with Tuberculosis and died after a long st ruggle of 5 years. Poe hit a hard depression afterwards, but then cleaned up for the final year of his life. He spent his last year working, and the circumstances around his death remain a mystery. He was found on a Baltimore street, delirious. The debate continues as to whether he was drunk, but some theories even point to Rabies. We will probably never know. Raleigh NC Discussion: Edgar Allen Poe has become known as the master of moody and hair-raising works. His work has been mocked, critiqued, copied, and redone by many (not to mention turned into a spoof by The Simpsons television show. The complete works of Poe number well over 100 stories, biographies, poems, literary analysis, and criticisms. Poe made the most use of his short lifetime if the number of writings can reflect that quality.

Network Case Study Essay

1. Which of the following is true about a TCP/IP network? A) The network uses only standards defined in TCP/IP RFCs. 2. Which of the following terms is not a common synonym for TCP/IP model? (Choose two answers.) D) TCP/IP mapping and C) Ethernet 3. Think generically about the idea of a networking standard, ignoring any particular standard or standards group. Which of the following is typically true of a standard? (Choose two answers.) B) It exists as a deployed network device, which people can visit on the Internet. C) It has been passed through some form of review and approval or certification process. 4. Contrast an international standard as compared to a de facto standard. (Choose two answers.) B) International standard documents have been reviewed more thoroughly. D) International standards typically mean that the standards group has been authorized by many countries to create standards that apply to multiple countries. 5. Which of the following are true about the commonly used version of the TCP/IP model as shown in this chapter? (Choose two answers.) C) The physical layer sits just below the data link layer. D). The network layer sits in the middle of the five layers. 6. The TCP/IP model refers to standards other than those the IETF defines in RFCs. Which of these standards groups is typically the source of external LAN standards? (Choose two answers.) A) ITU B) IEEE 7. Which of the following is not a typical reason for a group of ten companies to start a vendor group, for the purpose of pushing a new networking technology? C) To improve the chances that the technology will be standardized 8. The TCP/IP and OSI models have some obvious differences, like the number of layers. Think about the more commonly used version of the TCP/IP model discussed in this chapter, and then think about how to talk about TCP/IP using OSI terms. Which of the following is a correctly phrased statement for how to use OSI terminology? B) IP is a network layer protocol. 9. Historically, which of the following models were the earliest models used in corporate networks? A) Vendor models 10. Which of the following statements is true when comparing the OSI and the TCP/IP mode l as defined in RFC 1122? B) The lower four layers of TCP/IP define the same kinds of functions as the matching layer numbers from OSI. 11. A network engineer connects two PCs (PC1 and PC2) using Ethernet NICs and an Ethernet cable that has copper wires inside. The two PCs communicate successfully. Which of  the following happens when PC1 sends bits to PC2? D)PC1 converts the bits to sound waves, and the NIC uses an A/D converter to send the data over the cable. 12. A TCP/IP network includes an Ethernet LAN with 10 PCs uses a LAN switch. PC1 sends data intended for an app running on PC2. Which of the following mechanisms does Ethernet define so that PC2 receives and processes the data? A)The Ethernet header lists PC2’s MAC address so that PC2 will realize that the data is meant for PC2. 13. Two network pros are having a conversation about some issues in a network. They discuss some issues related to how PPP forwards data, so they happen to be discussing the data structure that includes the PPP header and trailer. Which of the following terms do they use? B) Packet 14. Which of the following are true facts about IP addresses? (Choose two answers.) C) Are listed in the data-link trailer D) Used by routers to make a forwarding decision 15. Which of the following answers is true about Ethernet MAC addresses? A) 48 bits in length C) Are listed in the data-link trailer 16. Which of the following statements is true comparing LANs and WANs? (Choose two answers.) A) LANs generally connect devices that are nearer to each other, compared to WANs. D) LANs are purchased, and WANs are leased. 17. Which of the following answers list true facts about the data link layer of TCP/IP? (Choose two answers.) B) Two TCP/IP data-link protocols are Ethernet and PPP. C) Data-link protocols define addresses that identify devices connected to the underlying physical link. 18. Which of the following answers list true facts about the network layer of TCP/IP? (Choose two answers.) B) The two primary protocols are TCP and IP. C) IP provides logical addressing and routing ser vices 19. Which of the following answers lists true facts about the transport layer of TCP/IP? B) The two primary protocol options are TCP and IP. C) TCP provides error recovery services to application layer protocols that use TCP. 20. A PC user opens a web browser and sends a request to a web server to load a new web page. Three routers forward the data as it passes from client to server. Consider the data plus all headers and trailers that go from the web client to the web server. Which of the following headers go all the way from the web client to the web server? (Choose three answers.) A)Data-link header B) Network layer header C) Transport layer header

Airline Demand Forecast

STIMATION OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN TURKEY ENAR TUNC, Orhan sIvrIkaya* Okan UNIVERSITY Title: ESTIMATION OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN TURKEY Orhan Sivrikaya*(Candidate Phd. ), OKAN UNIVERSITY Tel: 0-532-4265392 Fax: [0-212-4652299] Email: [email  protected] com Enar Tunc, Professor of Industrial Engineering, OKAN UNIVERSITY Keywords * Domestic Air Transportation, City Pair, Origin and Destination, Demand, Forecast, Gravity Model, Multivariate Regression and Detour Factor. Total Page: 11 AbstractAccuracy in estimating airline market demand is a key element while an airline is planning its short term or long term business plan regardless of its status quo being an incumbent or startup company. Turkish domestic market of air travel industry has been dramatically grown in recent years especially after the deregulation commencing on the renewal of air transportation policy in 2003. However there is not any relevant scientific research in the literature to analyze the determining factors on air travel demand of domestic city pairs in Turkey.A multivariate regression model is generated in order to fit the air travel demand in number of passengers carried. The model is based on aggregate individual market which consists of on-line city pairs. The model is found significantly representative within the experimental data out of the years 2008 and 2009 including the origin and destination pairs for 40 on-line cities. Then, the model is tested by using 2010 figures in order to compare prediction values with actual figures. Accuracy level is found to be encouraging for potential new airports or potential new routes to be evaluated by using the model estimates. . Introduction The deregulation of air transportation market in Turkey in 2003 has started revolutionary changes in the airline industry. New government having the target to increase the portion of air travel out of all modes of local transportation attempted to encourage more airline companies to enter the market and enabl e them to offer more attractive prices by tax cutting specific to the airline sector. Price oriented competition has worked very well to generate significant airline passenger traffic.Low Cost Carriers have contributed to exercise a sustainable two digit growth by stealing passenger traffic from bus transportation as a result of shortening the gap between relative prices. Turkish Airlines as a legacy carrier has responded to structural changes in the market by applying dynamic pricing policy and growth strategy to benefit from economies of scale resulting in increase in productivity. Big changes in airline passenger traffic in Turkey create a challenge to testify any claiming model built to estimate air travel demand. Macroeconomic or demographic changes do not seem to be responsible for whole boost in air travel demand.Competition doubled or tripled available seat capacity on some routes so that it was required a different strategy to generate additional demand to achieve in satisf actory load factor which is a key performance indicator for airline profitability. Airline traffic is most of the time considered as a significant indicator for the performance of the nation’s entire industry since it is highly correlated with the number of business events and interactions with other industries simultaneously. So, it implies that changes in economies may influence airlines traffic indirectly.However, airline specific parameters like ticket price and degrees of competition are also supposed to be main driver for passenger demand besides the macroeconomic factors. The sustainable success of any organization or company is closely related with how well management or decision makers are able to foresee the future and develop appropriate strategies. The objective of this study is to examine the demand size for air transport in Turkey and show its implications for air transport planning. 2. BACKGROUND It has been seen throughout the results of the previous research in the iterature that one of the most important issue to develop a predictive model is to choose the right combination of the variables which represent the determining factors involved in the model. These variables are categorized by two subgroups (Carson et al. 2010): 1. Geo-economics Factors: which consist of geographical characteristics, economical activities, social factor etc. 2. Service Related Factors: which are related to airline dependent factors. The other prominent aspect of model generation is the level of forecast which can be classified by two groups as well; 1.Microscopic Model: Airport specific or city pair specific data is involved such that it refers the total number of incoming and outgoing passengers per particular airport or per city pair. 2. Macroscopic Model: Region or country specific data is involved such that it refers to aggregated number of passengers in a region or country regardless of origin or destination city. Aggregate Individual Market (AIM) foreca st outperforms the aggregate approach since the forecasting power gained by exploiting heterogeneous information across markets dominates the forecasting power lost due to estimation of many coefficients (Carson et al. 2010).Local area information appears to be more relevant in determining local O&D travel than of national information such as gross domestic product (Bhadra 2003). ————————————————- 3. OVERVIEW OF THE determ? nants for air passenger demand ? n turkey Turkey is spread over a wide geographical area and road ways are not adequately constructed for all direction. Hence, air transportation is supposed to have more shares out of total statistics in domestic transportation covering all possible city pairs. While the gap between relative prices is being shortened, more and more people find it affordable to fly.This study is aiming to find out the determining fac tors which are concerned to turn potential demand into air travel passengers. The proposed model is not only to explain actual traffic results but also to estimate potential traffic between cross cities which are not connected directly or to evaluate off-line cities to build new airport. Population, gross domestic product per capita and employment rate are considered as the leading macroeconomic dynamics behind air travel demand as depicted in the Table 1. Average fare has a stimulating effect on airline demand as Brons et al. 2002) pointed out that ticket price is an elastic driver for airline demand generation. There are also specific indicators for a particular city pair traffic representing interactivity between the concerning cities such as distance and number of migrants from each other. The number of bus registered in a city is indicating the volume of bus transportation which is considered to be negatively related with air travel demand. Since number of carriers as a degree of competition contributes to market expansion, it is also embedded in the model expecting a positive relation with air travel demand.Table 1 Commonality in Types of Variables Variable’s Name| Percentage of Occurrence*| GDP| 50. 0 %| GDP per Capita| 35. 7 %| Unemployment Rate| 14. 3 %| Fuel Price| 7. 1 %| Number of Employees| 7. 1 %| Population| 42. 8 %| Average Fare| 57. 1 %| CPI| 14. 3 %| Trade per Capita| 14. 3 %| Exchange Rate| 14. 3 %| Service Frequency| 28. 6 %| Distance| 42. 8 %| Expenditures| 7. 1 %| * The percentages are calculated out of a sample of 14 different relevant articles. Most of the itineraries between city pairs are not directly connected that means air passengers travel with connecting flights via one or more transfer points.If there is no direct service the dummy variable transit gets 1 and 0 otherwise. Naturally, passengers would not prefer to fly with connecting flights so it is anticipated to be negatively affecting air travel demand. 4. ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION data, Methodology and results Data availability is main issue when data coverage is decided. Experimental model is based on the data of the two years 2008 and 2009 since all explanatory variables are available within the specified period. There are 40 on-line destinations in domestic network in Turkey.This number of destinations can theoretically generate 1560 different origin and destinations (O&D’s) on which direct or connecting flights are possible. However experimental sample does not cover data for all possible on-line O&D’s because some city pairs which are at close distance are not meaningful to fly with connecting flights or the concerning flights are not connected each other. There are 231 city pairs which are served with direct flights, whereas the remaining city pairs are found to be flown by connecting flights via an appropriate domestic hub.Under the assumption of approximately the same number of O&D’s for each year, data size will be duplicated for the two year’s period. Airport statistics for all scheduled carriers are used in the experimental model as a source of the dependent variable. Transfer traffic is removed from the statistics for each city pair, since the proposed model is to estimate pure O&D passenger by using data specific to the corresponding city pairs. Average prices for each city pair are estimated by using airlines’ web site. Road distance between the cities is taken from the web site of the General Directorate Highways of Turkey.Population of the cities, GDP per capita of the cities, the number of migrants between the cities, the number of bus registered in the city’s account and labour rate of the cities are obtained from the Bureau of Statistics in Turkey. Weighted average of the corresponding city’s population is used, while GDP per capita and the labour rate are being converted to O&D level. A variety of different models exist for passenger volu me estimation. Since no single model guarantees accuracy, airlines in fact compare forecasts from several different models.Within this set of forecasting methods, the most demand models used are of the simple gravity type formulation. (S. C. Wirasinghe et al. 1998). The gravity model for the estimation of domestic passenger volume between city-pairs is examined in this study. By excluding unavailable service-related or market specific input variables, and using cross-sectional calibration data, the model is particularly applicable to city-pairs where no air service exists, historical data is unavailable, or factors describing the current service level of air transportation are not available.Average price for city-pairs with no air service is estimated by fall back mechanism that it uses the average price which is normalized by distance of the cities having similar market structure. All other explanatory variables are not service related factors and available for the city-pairs with no air service. The gravity model takes the form: D=?. AaBbCc†¦ This model assumes that the marginal effects of each variable on demand are not constant but depend on both the value of the variable and the values of all other variables in the demand function (Aderamo 2010).In other words, the explanatory variables affect demand in multiplicative manner. Partial derivation of any independent variable proves aforementioned relationship. However, this model can be made suitable for multiple regressions by applying logarithmic transformation. Logarithmic form of the gravity model takes the form: LogD=? 0 + ? 1LogA + ? 2LogB + ? 3LogC +†¦ where ? 0=Log? It is obvious that interdependency is resolved in this form so that multiple regression model can be applied. The proposed multiple regression model is generated by using SAS Jmp 9 tool.Table 2 shows the matrix of correlation between the independent variables. The results show that some of the variables are interrelated. For exa mple, Log_Migrant has a correlation coefficient of 0. 8661 and 0. 8150 with Log_Pop* and Log_Bus* respectively. Where both Log_Migrant* and Log_Pop* are calculated by taking the product of population of origin and destination cities. However, omitting any of these two variables would substantially reduce the model fit. As the goal is to obtain a reliable estimation of the passenger volume, all interrelated variables were included (Grosche et al. 007). Furthermore, it has been said that if the sole purpose of regression analysis is prediction or forecasting, then multicollinearity is not a serious problem because the higher R2, the better prediction(R. C. Geary, 1963). In order to verify stepwise regression fit of the model, stepwise process by backward direction and minimum AICc selection is used. When all independent variables as depicted in Table 2 are entered, the smallest AICc value 2665. 913 is found. Adjusted R2 as shown in the Table 3 is 0. 823991 which is fairly good.In the Table 4, adjusted R2’s are compared including the relevant articles in the reference list. This comparison table shows that the studied model efficiency is relatively successful. As shown in the table 5, the F test also shows that the regression is significant since F statistic of 497. 2411 is obviously higher than the critical value of 2. 32 at 0. 01 level of significance. In the table 6, parameter estimates are depicted. As seen in the table, all independent variables are significant at 0. 01 level of two tail significance considering their t-statistics.Since the coefficients of the regression model represent elasticities of the corresponding variables, how change of any variable affects demand estimation can be determined. The price elasticity of passenger demand is approximately -1. 1 which implies that airline passenger demand in Turkey is elastic. This finding is compliant with the fact that after low cost carriers entered into the market by lowering ticket prices, mark et size has been tramendously enlarged. Domestic passenger traffic grows higher than the decreasing rate of ticket price.Both GDP per capita and ticket price seem to have elastic impact on passenger demand estimation. Air transportation and bus transportation seem to be competing each other because of their negative relation. When air service is provided by connecting flight which means transit traffic, air transport demand is decreasing. This result is not surprising because people do prefer to fly directly. Another result is that the number of airlines participating in each O&D market tends to have a positive impact on the number of passengers traveled between O&D pairs, perhaps representing the ffects of choice more than anything else. Lastly, distance and the number of migrants are found positively related with air transport demand as expected. Table 4 Model Efficiency Benchmark| Research Name| Level of Forecast| Author| Year| Independent Variables| Observation| Adjusted R Square| Demand For Air Transport In Nigeria| Aggregate| Adekunle J. Aderamo| 2010| Index of AgricultureIndex of ElectricityGDP| 23| 0. 923| Air Travel Domestic Demand Model in Bangladesh| Aggregate| Md. Jobair Bin Alam Dewan Masud KArim| 1998| PopulationGDPDistance| 31| 0. 8| An Econometric Analysis of Air Travel Demand in Saudi Arabia| Aggregate| Seraj Y. Abed Abdullah O. Ba-FailSajjad M. Jasimuddin| 2001| PopulationTotal Expenditures| 25| 0. 959| Regression Model for Passenger Demand: A case study of Cairo Airport| Aggregate| Dr. Khaled A. Abbas| 2003| Population GDPForeign Tourist| 88| 0. 82| Demand for Airravel In USA| O&D| Dipasis Bhadra| 2003| Density, Interaction, Distance, Marketshare, Fare| 2424| 0. 57| An Aggregate Demand Model in Hub-and-Spoke| Aggregate| Wenbin WeiMark Hansen| 2006| Frequency, Number of Spokes, Fare, Distance, Capacity, Traffic Type| 897| 0. 92| Gravity Model for Airline Passenger Volume Estimation| City-pairs| Tobias GroscheFranz RothlaufArmin He inzl| 2007| DistancePopulationCatchment Area| 956| 0. 761| The number of migrants indicates the relationship between city-pairs hence it positively affects on point to point air traffic demand. When distance is greater, air transport demand increases due to the fact that people get higher utility comparing to the alternative modes of transportation. In the figure 1, model fit of the experimental data is shown in scatter diagram. There are total 955 observations within experimental data.A test data is obtained from 2010 actual results which consists of 562 observations. The model predicts 2010 figures with a Mape (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value 14. 1 %. Actual data of 2010 is refined by excluding the O&D’s having less than 104 yearly passengers flow and detour factors smaller than 3. Logic of this filtering is to choose meaningful connections out of the all itineraries. Although the model is performing significantly well with a relatively high Rsquare value, small d iscrepancy in prediction value may result in larger inaccuracy in passenger demand estimate because of logarithmic aspect of the regression. . CONCLUSION This study demonstrated that the proposed econometric estimation and using micro data based on local area information can result in substantial insights to O&D travel. The demand model reveals all the quantitative relationships among the used variables, which is helpful for airlines to understand the consequence of change of their decision variables or adjustment of their routing structures, and also useful for the related authority to quantify the benefits of airport capacity expansion and to take into account while airport building plan is being evaluated.It would be advantageous to extend the time period covered by the analysis. This would enable to examine possible differences in elasticity amongst city-pairs. Extending the data back in time would also provide observations of airfares progress. The model efficiency may be i mproved for even more reliable estimation, if more independent variables indicating bilateral relations between city-pairs are embedded in the model such as the number of call between city-pairs or credit card statistics of domestic visitors. References S. C. Wirasinghe and A. S. 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